Unemployment Rate

The Unemployment Rate released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is a percentage that surges from dividing the number of unemployed workers by the total civilian labor force. It represents the percentage of people actively seeking employment and willing to work. Usually, as a higher rate is seen in recessionary economies, while on the ​contrary, a growing economy sees its unemployment rate decreasing. Therefore, a decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish), although by itself, the number can't determinate the markets move as it depends on the headline reading, the Nonfarm Payroll.

Most recent - Wednesday 11 February 2026 13:30

Previous
4.4%
Revised
-
Forecast
4.4%
Actual
4.3%

Higher numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for USD/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/USD pairs.

Next event - Friday 6 March 2026 13:30

Previous
-
Forecast
-
Actual
-

The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is medium.

There is no forecast value for Unemployment Rate yet - check back for updates.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for Unemployment Rate was 4.3% against a forecast of 4.4%.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Wednesday 11 February 2026 13:30
4.4%
4.3%
Friday 6 February 2026 13:30
-
-
Friday 9 January 2026 13:30
4.5%
4.4%
Tuesday 16 December 2025 13:30
4.4%
4.6%
Thursday 20 November 2025 13:30
4.3%
4.4%
Friday 7 November 2025 13:30
4.3%
-
Friday 3 October 2025 12:30
4.3%
-
Friday 5 September 2025 12:30
4.3%
4.3%
Friday 1 August 2025 12:30
4.2%
4.2%
Thursday 3 July 2025 12:30
4.3%
4.1%
Friday 6 June 2025 12:30
4.2%
4.2%
Friday 2 May 2025 12:30
4.2%
4.2%
Friday 4 April 2025 12:30
4.1%
4.2%
Friday 7 March 2025 13:30
4%
4.1%
Friday 7 February 2025 13:30
4.1%
4%
Friday 10 January 2025 13:30
4.2%
4.1%
Friday 6 December 2024 13:30
4.2%
4.2%
Friday 1 November 2024 12:30
4.1%
4.1%
Friday 4 October 2024 12:30
4.2%
4.1%
Friday 6 September 2024 12:30
4.2%
4.2%
Friday 2 August 2024 12:30
4.1%
4.3%
Friday 5 July 2024 12:30
4%
4.1%
Friday 7 June 2024 12:30
3.9%
4%
Friday 3 May 2024 12:30
3.8%
3.9%
Friday 5 April 2024 12:30
3.9%
3.8%
Friday 8 March 2024 13:30
3.7%
3.9%
Friday 2 February 2024 13:30
3.8%
3.7%
Friday 5 January 2024 13:30
3.8%
3.7%
Friday 8 December 2023 13:30
3.9%
3.7%
Friday 3 November 2023 12:30
3.8%
3.9%
Friday 6 October 2023 12:30
3.7%
3.8%
Friday 1 September 2023 12:30
3.5%
3.8%
Friday 4 August 2023 12:30
3.6%
3.5%
Friday 7 July 2023 12:30
3.6%
3.6%
Friday 2 June 2023 12:30
3.5%
3.7%
Friday 5 May 2023 12:30
3.5%
3.4%
Friday 7 April 2023 12:30
3.6%
3.5%
Friday 10 March 2023 13:30
3.4%
3.6%

Economic context

Recent economic data has been moderately bullish for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Unemployment Rate result:

PreviousLatest
Monthly Budget StatementBullish change$-145B$-95B
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)Bullish change0.1%0.4%
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)(no change)3.7%3.7%
Labor Force Participation RateBullish change62.4%62.5%
Nonfarm PayrollsBullish change48K130K
U6 Underemployment RateBullish change8.4%8%
Employment Cost IndexBearish change0.8%0.7%
Retail Sales (MoM)Bearish change0.6%0%
Retail Sales Control GroupBearish change0.2%-0.1%
Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)Bearish change0.4%0%
ADP Employment Change 4-week averageBullish change5K6.5K
Michigan Consumer Expectations IndexBearish change5756.6
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBullish change56.457.3
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationsBearish change4%3.5%
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationBullish change3.3%3.4%
JOLTS Job OpeningsBearish change6.928M6.542M
Initial Jobless ClaimsBearish change209K231K
Challenger Job CutsBullish change35.553K108.435K
ISM Services Employment IndexBearish change51.750.3
ISM Services New Orders IndexBearish change56.553.1
ISM Services PMI(no change)53.853.8
ISM Services Prices PaidBullish change65.166.6
S&P Global Composite PMIBullish change52.853
ADP Employment ChangeBearish change37K22K
ISM Manufacturing Employment IndexBullish change44.848.1
ISM Manufacturing New Orders IndexBullish change47.457.1
ISM Manufacturing PMIBullish change47.952.6
ISM Manufacturing Prices PaidBullish change58.559
Chicago PMIBullish change43.554
Producer Price Index (MoM)Bullish change0.2%0.5%
Producer Price Index (YoY)(no change)3%3%
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)Bullish change0%0.7%
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)Bullish change3%3.3%
Factory Orders (MoM)Bullish change-1.3%2.7%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change210K209K
Nonfarm Productivity(no change)4.9%4.9%
Unit Labor Costs(no change)-1.9%-1.9%

About Unemployment Rate

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:
Category:Labor Market
Frequency:Monthly
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