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ADP Employment Change

Traders often consider employment figures from ADP, America’s largest payrolls provider, report as the harbinger of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on Nonfarm Payrolls (usually published two days later), because of the correlation between the two. The overlaying of both series is quite high, but on individual months, the discrepancy can be substantial. Another reason FX traders follow this report is the same as with the NFP – a persistent vigorous growth in employment figures increases inflationary pressures, and with it, the likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be USD bullish.

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Most recent - Wednesday, 30 April 12:15

147K

Revised

147K

Forecast

108K

Actual

62K

Lower numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for xxx/USD pairs and bearish for USD/xxx pairs.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for ADP Employment Change was 62K against a forecast of 108K.

Past events

Date

Forecast

Actual

30 April 2025 12:15

108K

62K

2 April 2025 12:15

105K

155K

5 March 2025 13:15

140K

77K

5 February 2025 13:15

150K

183K

8 January 2025 13:15

140K

122K

4 December 2024 13:15

150K

146K

30 October 2024 12:15

115K

233K

2 October 2024 12:15

120K

143K

5 September 2024 12:15

145K

99K

31 July 2024 12:15

150K

122K

3 July 2024 12:15

160K

150K

5 June 2024 12:15

173K

152K

1 May 2024 12:15

175K

192K

3 April 2024 12:15

148K

184K

6 March 2024 13:15

150K

140K

31 January 2024 13:15

145K

107K

4 January 2024 13:15

115K

164K

6 December 2023 13:15

130K

103K

1 November 2023 12:15

150K

113K

4 October 2023 12:15

153K

89K

30 August 2023 12:15

195K

177K

2 August 2023 12:15

189K

324K

6 July 2023 12:15

228K

497K

1 June 2023 12:15

170K

278K

3 May 2023 12:15

148K

296K

5 April 2023 12:15

200K

145K

8 March 2023 13:15

200K

242K

1 February 2023 13:15

178K

106K

5 January 2023 13:15

150K

235K

30 November 2022 13:15

200K

127K

2 November 2022 12:15

195K

239K

5 October 2022 12:15

200K

208K

31 August 2022 12:15

288K

132K

31 August 2022 12:15

270K

31 August 2022 12:15

380K

2 June 2022 12:15

300K

128K

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next ADP Employment Change result:

		Previous	Latest
Initial Jobless Claims	Bullish change	241K	228K
Nonfarm Productivity	Bearish change	1.7%	-0.8%
Unit Labor Costs	Bullish change	2%	5.7%
Fed Interest Rate Decision	(no change)	4.5%	4.5%
ISM Services Employment Index	Bullish change	46.2	49
ISM Services New Orders Index	Bullish change	50.4	52.3
ISM Services PMI	Bullish change	50.8	51.6
ISM Services Prices Paid	Bullish change	60.9	65.1
S&P Global Composite PMI	Bearish change	51.2	50.6
Factory Orders (MoM)	Bullish change	0.5%	4.3%
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)	Bearish change	0.3%	0.2%
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)	(no change)	3.8%	3.8%
Labor Force Participation Rate	Bullish change	62.5%	62.6%
Nonfarm Payrolls	Bearish change	185K	177K
U6 Underemployment Rate	Bullish change	7.9%	7.8%
Unemployment Rate	(no change)	4.2%	4.2%
ISM Manufacturing Employment Index	Bullish change	44.7	46.5
ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index	Bullish change	45.2	47.2
ISM Manufacturing PMI	Bearish change	49	48.7
ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid	Bullish change	69.4	69.8
Initial Jobless Claims	Bearish change	223K	241K
Challenger Job Cuts	Bearish change	275.24K	105.441K
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)	Bearish change	0.5%	0%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)	Bearish change	3%	2.6%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)	Bearish change	0.4%	0%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)	Bearish change	2.7%	2.3%
Personal Income (MoM)	Bearish change	0.7%	0.5%
Personal Spending	Bullish change	0.4%	0.7%
Pending Home Sales (MoM)	Bullish change	2.1%	6.1%
Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index	Bearish change	47.6	44.6
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)	Bullish change	2.6%	3.5%
Employment Cost Index	(no change)	0.9%	0.9%
Gross Domestic Product Annualized	Bearish change	2.4%	-0.3%
Gross Domestic Product Price Index	Bullish change	2.3%	3.7%
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)	Bullish change	2.4%	3.6%
JOLTS Job Openings	Bearish change	7.48M	7.192M
Housing Price Index (MoM)	Bearish change	0.3%	0.1%

About ADP Employment Change

Country:	United States
Currency:	USD
Source:	ADP Research Institute
Category:	Labor Market
Frequency:	Monthly

Related events

	Australia		Unemployment Rate s.a.
	Australia		Employment Change s.a.
	Canada		Unemployment Rate
	Canada		Net Change in Employment
	New Zealand		Unemployment Rate
	New Zealand		Employment Change
	United Kingdom		Employment Change
	United Kingdom		ILO Unemployment Rate (3M)
	United Kingdom		Claimant Count Change
	United States		Nonfarm Payrolls
	United States		Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)
	United States		Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)
	Australia		Wage Price Index (QoQ)
	Australia		Part-Time Employment
	Australia		Participation Rate
	Australia		Full-Time Employment
	Canada		Average Hourly Wages (YoY)
	Germany		Unemployment Change
	Germany		Unemployment Rate s.a.
	Eurozone		Unemployment Rate
	Eurozone		Employment Change (QoQ)
	Japan		Labor Cash Earnings (YoY)
	Japan		Unemployment Rate
	New Zealand		Participation Rate
	New Zealand		Labour Cost Index (QoQ)
	United Kingdom		Claimant Count Rate
	United Kingdom		Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr)
	United Kingdom		Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr)
	United States		ISM Manufacturing Employment Index
	United States		Unit Labor Costs
	United States		Personal Income (MoM)
	United States		Nonfarm Payrolls Benchmark Revision
	United States		ISM Services Employment Index
	United States		Unemployment Rate
	United States		Nonfarm Productivity
	United States		JOLTS Job Openings
	United States		Initial Jobless Claims
	United States		Challenger Job Cuts
	United States		Labor Force Participation Rate
	United States		U6 Underemployment Rate
	United States		Employment Cost Index

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ADP Employment Change

Most recent - Wednesday, 30 April 12:15

Trading range

Trading range after each ADP Employment Change event

Forecast history

Past events

Economic context

About ADP Employment Change

Related events