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Retail Sales (MoM)

Retail Sales data published by the US Census Bureau is a leading indicator that gives important information about consumer spending, which has a significant impact on the GDP. Although strong sales figures are likely to boost the USD, external factors, such as weather conditions, could distort the data and paint a misleading picture. In addition to the headline data, changes in the Retail Sales Control Group could trigger a market reaction as it is used to prepare the estimates of Personal Consumption Expenditures for most goods.

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Most recent - Wednesday, 16 April 12:30

0.2%

Revised

Forecast

1.3%

Actual

1.4%

Higher numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for USD/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/USD pairs.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for Retail Sales (MoM) was 1.4% against a forecast of 1.3%.

Past events

Date

Forecast

Actual

16 April 2025 12:30

1.3%

1.4%

17 March 2025 12:30

0.7%

0.2%

14 February 2025 13:30

-0.1%

-0.9%

16 January 2025 13:30

0.6%

0.4%

17 December 2024 13:30

0.5%

0.7%

15 November 2024 13:30

0.3%

0.4%

17 October 2024 12:30

0.3%

0.4%

17 September 2024 12:30

-0.2%

0.1%

15 August 2024 12:30

0.3%

16 July 2024 12:30

18 June 2024 12:30

0.2%

0.1%

15 May 2024 12:30

0.4%

15 April 2024 12:30

0.3%

0.7%

14 March 2024 12:30

0.8%

0.6%

15 February 2024 13:30

-0.1%

-0.8%

17 January 2024 13:30

0.4%

0.6%

14 December 2023 13:30

-0.1%

0.3%

15 November 2023 13:30

-0.3%

-0.1%

17 October 2023 12:30

0.3%

0.7%

14 September 2023 12:30

0.2%

0.6%

15 August 2023 12:30

0.4%

0.7%

18 July 2023 12:30

0.5%

0.2%

15 June 2023 12:30

-0.1%

0.3%

16 May 2023 12:30

0.7%

0.4%

14 April 2023 12:30

-0.4%

-1%

15 March 2023 12:30

-0.3%

-0.4%

15 February 2023 13:30

1.8%

18 January 2023 13:30

-0.8%

-1.1%

15 December 2022 13:30

-0.1%

-0.6%

16 November 2022 13:30

1.3%

14 October 2022 12:30

0.2%

15 September 2022 12:30

0.3%

17 August 2022 12:30

0.1%

15 July 2022 12:30

0.8%

15 June 2022 12:30

0.2%

-0.3%

17 May 2022 12:30

0.7%

0.9%

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Retail Sales (MoM) result:

		Previous	Latest
Factory Orders (MoM)	Bullish change	0.5%	4.3%
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)	Bearish change	0.3%	0.2%
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)	(no change)	3.8%	3.8%
Labor Force Participation Rate	Bullish change	62.5%	62.6%
Nonfarm Payrolls	Bearish change	185K	177K
U6 Underemployment Rate	Bullish change	7.9%	7.8%
Unemployment Rate	(no change)	4.2%	4.2%
ISM Manufacturing Employment Index	Bullish change	44.7	46.5
ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index	Bullish change	45.2	47.2
ISM Manufacturing PMI	Bearish change	49	48.7
ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid	Bullish change	69.4	69.8
Initial Jobless Claims	Bearish change	223K	241K
Challenger Job Cuts	Bearish change	275.24K	105.441K
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)	Bearish change	0.5%	0%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)	Bearish change	3%	2.6%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)	Bearish change	0.4%	0%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)	Bearish change	2.7%	2.3%
Personal Income (MoM)	Bearish change	0.7%	0.5%
Personal Spending	Bullish change	0.4%	0.7%
Pending Home Sales (MoM)	Bullish change	2.1%	6.1%
Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index	Bearish change	47.6	44.6
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)	Bullish change	2.6%	3.5%
Employment Cost Index	(no change)	0.9%	0.9%
Gross Domestic Product Annualized	Bearish change	2.4%	-0.3%
Gross Domestic Product Price Index	Bullish change	2.3%	3.7%
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)	Bullish change	2.4%	3.6%
ADP Employment Change	Bearish change	147K	62K
JOLTS Job Openings	Bearish change	7.48M	7.192M
Housing Price Index (MoM)	Bearish change	0.3%	0.1%
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index	Bullish change	50.8	52.2
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation	(no change)	4.4%	4.4%
Michigan Consumer Expectations Index	Bullish change	47.2	47.3
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations	Bearish change	6.7%	6.5%
Existing Home Sales Change (MoM)	Bearish change	4.4%	-5.9%
Durable Goods Orders	Bullish change	0.9%	9.2%
Durable Goods Orders ex Defense	Bullish change	0.8%	10.4%
Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation	Bearish change	0.7%	0%
Initial Jobless Claims	Bearish change	216K	222K
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft	Bullish change	-0.3%	0.1%
New Home Sales Change (MoM)	Bullish change	3.1%	7.4%
S&P Global Composite PMI	Bearish change	53.5	51.2
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	Bullish change	50.2	50.7
S&P Global Services PMI	Bearish change	54.4	51.4

About Retail Sales (MoM)

Country:	United States
Currency:	USD
Source:	US Census Bureau
Category:	Consumption
Frequency:	Monthly

Related events

	Australia		Retail Sales s.a. (MoM)
	China		Retail Sales (YoY)
	Germany		Retail Sales (YoY)
	Eurozone		Retail Sales (YoY)
	New Zealand		Retail Sales (QoQ)
	United Kingdom		Retail Sales (MoM)
	United States		Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
	United States		Retail Sales Control Group
	Australia		Westpac Consumer Confidence
	Australia		Retail Sales (QoQ)
	Canada		Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)
	Canada		Retail Sales (MoM)
	Switzerland		Real Retail Sales (YoY)
	Germany		Retail Sales (MoM)
	Germany		Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey
	Eurozone		Consumer Confidence
	Eurozone		Retail Sales (MoM)
	Indonesia		Consumer Confidence
	Japan		Large Retailer Sales
	Japan		Retail Trade s.a (MoM)
	Japan		Retail Trade (YoY)
	New Zealand		ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
	New Zealand		Retail Sales ex Autos (QoQ)
	New Zealand		Westpac Consumer Survey
	United Kingdom		BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales (YoY)
	United Kingdom		Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM)
	United Kingdom		GfK Consumer Confidence
	United Kingdom		Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY)
	United Kingdom		Retail Sales (YoY)
	United States		Consumer Confidence
	United States		Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)
	United States		UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation
	United States		Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)
	United States		Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)
	United States		Personal Spending
	United States		Michigan Consumer Expectations Index
	United States		UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations

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Retail Sales (MoM)

Most recent - Wednesday, 16 April 12:30

Trading range

Trading range after each Retail Sales (MoM) event

Forecast history

Past events

Economic context

About Retail Sales (MoM)

Related events