Monthly Budget Statement

The Monthly Budget Statement released by the Financial Management Service summarizes the financial activities of federal entities, disbursing officers, and Federal Reserve banks. A positive budget statement that receipts exceed budgetary outlays is seen as bullish for the USD. On the other hands, a negative figure (deficit) that indicates government debt is seen as bearish.

Most recent - Friday 11 July 2025 18:00

Previous
$-316B
Revised
-
Forecast
$-11B
Actual
$27B

Higher numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for USD/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/USD pairs.

Next event - Tuesday 12 August 2025 18:00

Previous
-
Forecast
-
Actual
-

The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is medium.

There is no forecast value for Monthly Budget Statement yet - check back for updates.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for Monthly Budget Statement was $27B against a forecast of $-11B.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Friday 11 July 2025 18:00
$-11B
$27B
Wednesday 11 June 2025 18:00
$-325B
$-316B
Monday 12 May 2025 18:00
$255B
$258B
Thursday 10 April 2025 18:00
$-236.6B
$-161B
Wednesday 12 March 2025 18:00
$-303.2B
$-307B
Wednesday 12 February 2025 19:00
$-88.1B
$-129B
Tuesday 14 January 2025 19:00
$-75B
$-87B
Wednesday 11 December 2024 19:00
$-353B
$-367B
Wednesday 13 November 2024 19:00
$-211B
$-257B
Friday 18 October 2024 20:00
$61B
$64B
Thursday 12 September 2024 18:00
$-349.6B
$-380B
Monday 12 August 2024 18:00
$-254.3B
$-244B
Thursday 11 July 2024 18:00
$-83B
$-66B
Wednesday 12 June 2024 18:00
$-250B
$-347B
Friday 10 May 2024 18:00
$244.5B
$209.5B
Wednesday 10 April 2024 18:00
$-197.5B
$-236B
Tuesday 12 March 2024 18:00
$-299B
$-296B
Monday 12 February 2024 19:00
$-21B
$-22B
Thursday 11 January 2024 19:00
$-65.25B
$-129B
Tuesday 12 December 2023 19:00
$-301.05B
$-314B
Monday 13 November 2023 19:00
$-65B
$-67B
Friday 20 October 2023 18:00
$-78.6B
$-171B
Wednesday 13 September 2023 18:00
$-240B
$89B
Thursday 10 August 2023 18:00
$-109.3B
$-221B
Thursday 13 July 2023 18:00
$-175B
$-228B
Monday 12 June 2023 18:00
$-236B
$-240B
Wednesday 10 May 2023 18:00
$235B
$176B
Wednesday 12 April 2023 18:00
$-302B
$-378B
Friday 10 March 2023 19:00
$-256B
$-262B
Friday 10 February 2023 19:00
$-63B
$-39B
Thursday 12 January 2023 19:00
$-70B
$-85B
Monday 12 December 2022 19:00
-
$-249B
Thursday 10 November 2022 19:00
$-90B
$-88B
Friday 21 October 2022 14:30
-
$-430B
Tuesday 13 September 2022 18:00
$-213.5B
$-220B
Wednesday 10 August 2022 18:00
$-194B
$-211B

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Monthly Budget Statement result:

PreviousLatest
Initial Jobless ClaimsBearish change218K226K
Nonfarm ProductivityBullish change-1.8%2.4%
Unit Labor CostsBearish change6.9%1.6%
ISM Services Employment IndexBearish change47.246.4
ISM Services New Orders IndexBearish change51.350.3
ISM Services PMIBearish change50.850.1
ISM Services Prices PaidBullish change67.569.9
S&P Global Composite PMIBullish change54.655.1
Factory Orders (MoM)Bearish change8.3%-4.8%
Michigan Consumer Expectations IndexBearish change58.657.7
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBearish change61.861.7
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationsBullish change4.4%4.5%
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationBearish change3.6%3.4%
ISM Manufacturing Employment IndexBearish change4543.4
ISM Manufacturing New Orders IndexBullish change46.447.1
ISM Manufacturing PMIBearish change4948
ISM Manufacturing Prices PaidBearish change69.764.8
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)Bullish change0.2%0.3%
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)Bullish change3.8%3.9%
Labor Force Participation RateBearish change62.3%62.2%
Nonfarm PayrollsBullish change14K73K
U6 Underemployment RateBearish change7.7%7.9%
Unemployment RateBearish change4.1%4.2%
Chicago PMIBullish change40.447.1
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)Bullish change0.2%0.3%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)(no change)2.8%2.8%
Employment Cost Index(no change)0.9%0.9%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBearish change217K218K
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)Bullish change0.2%0.3%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bullish change2.4%2.6%
Personal Income (MoM)Bullish change-0.4%0.3%
Personal SpendingBullish change0%0.3%
Challenger Job CutsBullish change47.999K62.075K
Fed Interest Rate Decision(no change)4.5%4.5%
Pending Home Sales (MoM)Bearish change1.8%-0.8%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)Bearish change3.5%2.5%
Gross Domestic Product AnnualizedBullish change-0.5%3%
Gross Domestic Product Price IndexBearish change3.8%2%
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)Bearish change3.7%2.1%
ADP Employment ChangeBullish change-23K104K
JOLTS Job OpeningsBearish change7.771M7.437M
Housing Price Index (MoM)Bullish change-0.3%-0.2%

About Monthly Budget Statement

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:US Bureau of the Fiscal Service
Category:Politics
Frequency:Monthly
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