NFIB Business Optimism Index

The NFIB Research Foundation has collected Small Business Economic Trends data with quarterly surveys since 1974 and monthly surveys since 1986. Survey respondents are drawn from NFIB's membership. The report is released on the second Tuesday of each month.

Next event - Tuesday 12 May 2026 10:00

Previous
95.8
Forecast
96.1
Actual
-

The typical/expected market impact of this event is low.

The consensus forecast for NFIB Business Optimism Index is 96.1. A higher value than forecast tends to be bullish for USD/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/USD pairs.

Most recent - Tuesday 14 April 2026 10:00

Previous
98.8
Forecast
98.6
Actual
95.8

Lower numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for xxx/USD pairs and bearish for USD/xxx pairs.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for NFIB Business Optimism Index was 95.8 against a forecast of 98.6.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Tuesday 14 April 2026 10:00
98.6
95.8
Tuesday 10 March 2026 10:00
99.7
98.8
Tuesday 10 February 2026 11:00
99.9
99.3
Tuesday 13 January 2026 11:00
99.5
99.5
Tuesday 9 December 2025 11:00
98.4
99
Tuesday 11 November 2025 11:00
98.3
98.2
Tuesday 14 October 2025 10:00
100.5
98.8
Tuesday 9 September 2025 10:00
101
100.8
Tuesday 12 August 2025 10:00
98.6
100.3
Tuesday 8 July 2025 10:00
98.7
98.6
Tuesday 10 June 2025 10:00
95.9
98.8
Tuesday 13 May 2025 10:00
94.5
95.8
Tuesday 8 April 2025 10:00
101.3
97.4
Tuesday 11 March 2025 10:00
101
100.7
Tuesday 11 February 2025 11:00
104.6
102.8
Tuesday 14 January 2025 11:00
100.8
105.1
Tuesday 10 December 2024 11:00
94.2
101.7
Tuesday 12 November 2024 11:00
91.9
93.7
Tuesday 8 October 2024 10:00
91.7
91.5
Tuesday 10 September 2024 10:00
93.6
91.2
Tuesday 13 August 2024 10:00
91.7
93.7
Tuesday 9 July 2024 10:00
89.5
91.5
Tuesday 11 June 2024 10:00
89.8
90.5
Tuesday 14 May 2024 10:00
88.1
89.7
Tuesday 9 April 2024 10:00
90.2
88.5
Tuesday 12 March 2024 10:00
90.7
89.4
Tuesday 13 February 2024 11:00
91.1
89.9
Tuesday 9 January 2024 11:00
90.7
91.9
Tuesday 12 December 2023 11:00
-
90.6
Tuesday 14 November 2023 11:00
-
90.7
Tuesday 10 October 2023 10:00
91.1
90.8
Tuesday 12 September 2023 10:00
-
91.3
Tuesday 8 August 2023 10:00
90.6
91.9
Tuesday 11 July 2023 10:00
89.9
91
Tuesday 13 June 2023 10:00
88.5
89.4

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next NFIB Business Optimism Index result:

PreviousLatest
Michigan Consumer Expectations IndexBullish change48.148.5
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBearish change49.848.2
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationsBearish change4.7%4.5%
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationBearish change3.5%3.4%
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)(no change)0.2%0.2%
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)Bullish change3.4%3.6%
Labor Force Participation RateBearish change61.9%61.8%
Nonfarm PayrollsBearish change185K115K
U6 Underemployment Rate(no change)-8%-8%
Unemployment Rate(no change)4.3%4.3%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBearish change190K200K
Nonfarm ProductivityBearish change1.8%0.8%
Unit Labor CostsBearish change4.4%2.3%
Challenger Job CutsBullish change60.62K83.687K
ADP Employment ChangeBullish change61K109K
New Home Sales Change (MoM)Bearish change8.9%7.4%
New Home Sales Change (MoM)Bullish change-19.9%8.9%
ISM Services Employment IndexBullish change45.248
ISM Services New Orders IndexBearish change60.653.5
ISM Services PMIBearish change5453.6
ISM Services Prices Paid(no change)70.770.7
JOLTS Job OpeningsBearish change6.922M6.866M
S&P Global Composite PMIBearish change5251.7
Factory Orders (MoM)Bullish change0.3%1.5%
ISM Manufacturing Employment IndexBearish change48.746.4
ISM Manufacturing New Orders IndexBullish change53.554.1
ISM Manufacturing PMI(no change)52.752.7
ISM Manufacturing Prices PaidBullish change78.384.6
Chicago PMIBearish change52.849.2
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0.4%0.3%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bullish change3%3.2%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)Bullish change2.7%4.3%
Employment Cost IndexBullish change0.7%0.9%
Gross Domestic Product AnnualizedBullish change0.5%2%
Gross Domestic Product Price IndexBearish change3.7%3.6%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change215K189K
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)Bullish change0.4%0.7%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bullish change2.8%3.5%
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)Bullish change2.9%4.5%
Personal Income (MoM)Bullish change0%0.6%
Personal SpendingBullish change0.6%0.9%
Fed Interest Rate Decision(no change)3.75%3.75%
Building Permits (MoM)Bearish change1.538M1.372M
Housing Starts (MoM)Bullish change1.356M1.502M
Building Permits (MoM)Bullish change1.386M1.538M
Durable Goods OrdersBullish change-1.2%0.8%
Durable Goods Orders ex DefenseBullish change-1.2%-0.3%
Durable Goods Orders ex TransportationBearish change1.2%0.9%
Housing Starts (MoM)Bearish change1.398M1.356M
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex AircraftBullish change1.6%3.3%
Housing Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0.2%0%
ADP Employment Change 4-week averageBearish change40.25K39.25K

About NFIB Business Optimism Index

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:National Federation of Independent Business
Category:Economic Activity
Frequency:Monthly

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