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Fed Interest Rate Decision

The US Federal Reserve has a policy meeting every five to eight weeks, and its single most significant decision is interest rates. A rise is taken to mean a healthy economy, and is bullish for USD. A rate cut sends the opposite signal. If the rate is left unchanged, the market can still be significantly removed by remarks during the subsequent FOMC Press Conference, starting 30 minutes after the rate announcement.

Most recent - Wednesday 30 July 2025 18:00

Previous
4.5%
Forecast
4.5%
Actual
4.5%

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for Fed Interest Rate Decision was 4.5% against a forecast of 4.5%.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Wednesday 30 July 2025 18:00
4.5%
4.5%
Wednesday 18 June 2025 18:00
4.5%
4.5%
Wednesday 7 May 2025 18:00
4.5%
4.5%
Wednesday 19 March 2025 18:00
4.5%
4.5%
Wednesday 29 January 2025 19:00
4.5%
4.5%
Wednesday 18 December 2024 19:00
4.5%
4.5%
Thursday 7 November 2024 19:00
4.75%
4.75%
Wednesday 18 September 2024 18:00
5.25%
5%
Wednesday 31 July 2024 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 12 June 2024 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 1 May 2024 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 20 March 2024 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 31 January 2024 19:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 13 December 2023 19:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 1 November 2023 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 20 September 2023 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 26 July 2023 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 14 June 2023 18:00
5.25%
5.25%
Wednesday 3 May 2023 18:00
5.25%
5.25%
Wednesday 22 March 2023 18:00
5%
5%
Wednesday 1 February 2023 19:00
4.75%
4.75%
Wednesday 14 December 2022 19:00
4.5%
4.5%
Wednesday 2 November 2022 18:00
4%
4%
Wednesday 21 September 2022 18:00
3.25%
3.25%

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Fed Interest Rate Decision result:

PreviousLatest
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)(no change)0.3%0.3%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bullish change2.8%2.9%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0.3%0.2%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)(no change)2.6%2.6%
Personal Income (MoM)Bullish change0.3%0.4%
Personal SpendingBullish change0.3%0.5%
Pending Home Sales (MoM)Bullish change-0.8%-0.4%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)(no change)2.5%2.5%
Gross Domestic Product AnnualizedBullish change3%3.3%
Gross Domestic Product Price Index(no change)2%2%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change234K229K
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)Bearish change2.1%2%
Housing Price Index (MoM)Bearish change-0.1%-0.2%
Durable Goods OrdersBullish change-9.3%-2.8%
Durable Goods Orders ex DefenseBullish change-9.5%-2.5%
Durable Goods Orders ex TransportationBullish change0.3%1.1%
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex AircraftBullish change-0.7%1.1%
New Home Sales Change (MoM)Bearish change4.1%-0.6%
Existing Home Sales Change (MoM)Bullish change-2.7%2%
S&P Global Composite PMIBullish change55.155.4
S&P Global Manufacturing PMIBullish change49.853.3
S&P Global Services PMIBearish change55.755.4
Initial Jobless ClaimsBearish change224K235K
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing SurveyBearish change15.9-0.3
Building Permits (MoM)Bearish change1.393M1.354M
Housing Starts (MoM)Bullish change1.321M1.428M
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationsBullish change4.5%4.9%
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationBullish change3.4%3.9%
Michigan Consumer Expectations IndexBearish change57.757.2
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBearish change61.758.6
Industrial Production (MoM)Bearish change0.4%-0.1%

About Fed Interest Rate Decision

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:Federal Reserve
Category:Interest Rates
Frequency:Weekly/week-based
 
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