Unemployment Rate

The Unemployment Rate released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is a percentage that surges from dividing the number of unemployed workers by the total civilian labor force. It represents the percentage of people actively seeking employment and willing to work. Usually, as a higher rate is seen in recessionary economies, while on the ​contrary, a growing economy sees its unemployment rate decreasing. Therefore, a decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish), although by itself, the number can't determinate the markets move as it depends on the headline reading, the Nonfarm Payroll.

Next event - Friday 3 October 2025 12:30

Previous
4.3%
Forecast
4.3%
Actual
-

The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is medium.

The consensus forecast for Unemployment Rate is 4.3%. A higher value than forecast tends to be bullish for xxx/USD pairs and bearish for USD/xxx pairs.

Most recent - Friday 5 September 2025 12:30

Previous
4.2%
Revised
-
Forecast
4.3%
Actual
4.3%

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for Unemployment Rate was 4.3% against a forecast of 4.3%.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Friday 5 September 2025 12:30
4.3%
4.3%
Friday 1 August 2025 12:30
4.2%
4.2%
Thursday 3 July 2025 12:30
4.3%
4.1%
Friday 6 June 2025 12:30
4.2%
4.2%
Friday 2 May 2025 12:30
4.2%
4.2%
Friday 4 April 2025 12:30
4.1%
4.2%
Friday 7 March 2025 13:30
4%
4.1%
Friday 7 February 2025 13:30
4.1%
4%
Friday 10 January 2025 13:30
4.2%
4.1%
Friday 6 December 2024 13:30
4.2%
4.2%
Friday 1 November 2024 12:30
4.1%
4.1%
Friday 4 October 2024 12:30
4.2%
4.1%
Friday 6 September 2024 12:30
4.2%
4.2%
Friday 2 August 2024 12:30
4.1%
4.3%
Friday 5 July 2024 12:30
4%
4.1%
Friday 7 June 2024 12:30
3.9%
4%
Friday 3 May 2024 12:30
3.8%
3.9%
Friday 5 April 2024 12:30
3.9%
3.8%
Friday 8 March 2024 13:30
3.7%
3.9%
Friday 2 February 2024 13:30
3.8%
3.7%
Friday 5 January 2024 13:30
3.8%
3.7%
Friday 8 December 2023 13:30
3.9%
3.7%
Friday 3 November 2023 12:30
3.8%
3.9%
Friday 6 October 2023 12:30
3.7%
3.8%
Friday 1 September 2023 12:30
3.5%
3.8%
Friday 4 August 2023 12:30
3.6%
3.5%
Friday 7 July 2023 12:30
3.6%
3.6%
Friday 2 June 2023 12:30
3.5%
3.7%
Friday 5 May 2023 12:30
3.5%
3.4%
Friday 7 April 2023 12:30
3.6%
3.5%
Friday 10 March 2023 13:30
3.4%
3.6%
Friday 3 February 2023 13:30
3.6%
3.4%
Friday 6 January 2023 13:30
3.7%
3.5%
Friday 2 December 2022 13:30
3.7%
3.7%
Friday 4 November 2022 12:30
3.6%
3.7%
Friday 7 October 2022 12:30
3.7%
3.5%

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Unemployment Rate result:

PreviousLatest
Challenger Job CutsBearish change85.979K54.064K
ISM Manufacturing Employment IndexBullish change43.845.3
ISM Manufacturing New Orders IndexBearish change51.448.9
ISM Manufacturing PMIBullish change48.749.1
ISM Manufacturing Prices PaidBearish change63.761.9
ADP Employment ChangeBearish change-3K-32K
JOLTS Job OpeningsBullish change7.208M7.227M
Chicago PMIBearish change41.540.6
Housing Price Index (MoM)Bullish change-0.2%-0.1%
Pending Home Sales (MoM)Bullish change-0.3%4%
Michigan Consumer Expectations IndexBearish change51.851.7
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBearish change55.455.1
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationsBearish change4.8%4.7%
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationBearish change3.9%3.7%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)(no change)0.2%0.2%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)(no change)2.9%2.9%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)Bullish change0.2%0.3%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bullish change2.6%2.7%
Personal Income (MoM)(no change)0.4%0.4%
Personal SpendingBullish change0.5%0.6%
Existing Home Sales Change (MoM)Bearish change2%-0.2%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)Bullish change2.5%2.6%
Durable Goods OrdersBullish change-2.7%2.9%
Durable Goods Orders ex DefenseBullish change-2.5%1.9%
Durable Goods Orders ex TransportationBearish change1%0.4%
Gross Domestic Product AnnualizedBullish change3.3%3.8%
Gross Domestic Product Price IndexBullish change2%2.1%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change232K218K
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex AircraftBearish change0.8%0.6%
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)Bullish change2%2.1%
New Home Sales Change (MoM)Bullish change-1.8%20.5%
S&P Global Composite PMIBearish change54.653.6
S&P Global Manufacturing PMIBearish change5352
S&P Global Services PMIBearish change54.553.9

About Unemployment Rate

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:
Category:Labor Market
Frequency:Monthly
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