ADP Employment Change

Traders often consider employment figures from ADP, America’s largest payrolls provider, report as the harbinger of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on Nonfarm Payrolls (usually published two days later), because of the correlation between the two. The overlaying of both series is quite high, but on individual months, the discrepancy can be substantial. Another reason FX traders follow this report is the same as with the NFP – a persistent vigorous growth in employment figures increases inflationary pressures, and with it, the likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be USD bullish.

Most recent - Wednesday 1 October 2025 12:15

Previous
-3K
Revised
-3K
Forecast
50K
Actual
-32K

Lower numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for xxx/USD pairs and bearish for USD/xxx pairs.

Next event - Wednesday 5 November 2025 13:15

Previous
-
Forecast
-
Actual
-

The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is high.

There is no forecast value for ADP Employment Change yet - check back for updates.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for ADP Employment Change was -32K against a forecast of 50K.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Wednesday 1 October 2025 12:15
50K
-32K
Thursday 4 September 2025 12:15
65K
54K
Wednesday 30 July 2025 12:15
78K
104K
Wednesday 2 July 2025 12:15
95K
-33K
Wednesday 4 June 2025 12:15
115K
37K
Wednesday 30 April 2025 12:15
108K
62K
Wednesday 2 April 2025 12:15
105K
155K
Wednesday 5 March 2025 13:15
140K
77K
Wednesday 5 February 2025 13:15
150K
183K
Wednesday 8 January 2025 13:15
140K
122K
Wednesday 4 December 2024 13:15
150K
146K
Wednesday 30 October 2024 12:15
115K
233K
Wednesday 2 October 2024 12:15
120K
143K
Thursday 5 September 2024 12:15
145K
99K
Wednesday 31 July 2024 12:15
150K
122K
Wednesday 3 July 2024 12:15
160K
150K
Wednesday 5 June 2024 12:15
173K
152K
Wednesday 1 May 2024 12:15
175K
192K
Wednesday 3 April 2024 12:15
148K
184K
Wednesday 6 March 2024 13:15
150K
140K
Wednesday 31 January 2024 13:15
145K
107K
Thursday 4 January 2024 13:15
115K
164K
Wednesday 6 December 2023 13:15
130K
103K
Wednesday 1 November 2023 12:15
150K
113K
Wednesday 4 October 2023 12:15
153K
89K
Wednesday 30 August 2023 12:15
195K
177K
Wednesday 2 August 2023 12:15
189K
324K
Thursday 6 July 2023 12:15
228K
497K
Thursday 1 June 2023 12:15
170K
278K
Wednesday 3 May 2023 12:15
148K
296K
Wednesday 5 April 2023 12:15
200K
145K
Wednesday 8 March 2023 13:15
200K
242K
Wednesday 1 February 2023 13:15
178K
106K
Thursday 5 January 2023 13:15
150K
235K
Wednesday 30 November 2022 13:15
200K
127K
Wednesday 2 November 2022 12:15
195K
239K
Wednesday 5 October 2022 12:15
200K
208K

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next ADP Employment Change result:

PreviousLatest
Challenger Job CutsBearish change85.979K54.064K
ISM Manufacturing Employment IndexBullish change43.845.3
ISM Manufacturing New Orders IndexBearish change51.448.9
ISM Manufacturing PMIBullish change48.749.1
ISM Manufacturing Prices PaidBearish change63.761.9
JOLTS Job OpeningsBullish change7.208M7.227M
Chicago PMIBearish change41.540.6
Housing Price Index (MoM)Bullish change-0.2%-0.1%
Pending Home Sales (MoM)Bullish change-0.3%4%
Michigan Consumer Expectations IndexBearish change51.851.7
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBearish change55.455.1
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationsBearish change4.8%4.7%
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationBearish change3.9%3.7%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)(no change)0.2%0.2%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)(no change)2.9%2.9%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)Bullish change0.2%0.3%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bullish change2.6%2.7%
Personal Income (MoM)(no change)0.4%0.4%
Personal SpendingBullish change0.5%0.6%
Existing Home Sales Change (MoM)Bearish change2%-0.2%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)Bullish change2.5%2.6%
Durable Goods OrdersBullish change-2.7%2.9%
Durable Goods Orders ex DefenseBullish change-2.5%1.9%
Durable Goods Orders ex TransportationBearish change1%0.4%
Gross Domestic Product AnnualizedBullish change3.3%3.8%
Gross Domestic Product Price IndexBullish change2%2.1%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change232K218K
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex AircraftBearish change0.8%0.6%
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)Bullish change2%2.1%
New Home Sales Change (MoM)Bullish change-1.8%20.5%
S&P Global Composite PMIBearish change54.653.6
S&P Global Manufacturing PMIBearish change5352
S&P Global Services PMIBearish change54.553.9

About ADP Employment Change

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:ADP Research Institute
Category:Labor Market
Frequency:Monthly
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